TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Shelby | Wright City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 25.3 | 22.0 |
| PA / GAME | 19.4 | 32.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.9 | -12.0 |
| SOS | -9.4 | +4.9 |
| POWER | +3.6 | -10.3 |
WRIGHT CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wright City finished the job, as South Shelby and Wright City finished 20-31. MOFO's pick of South Shelby missed; the model had projected a 30-20 final.
The actual margin was 11 points versus MOFO's 10.0-point projection. That produced a 21.0-point margin error, with score errors of 9.7 for South Shelby and 11.3 for Wright City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH SHELBY
MOFO leans toward South Shelby because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.0-point margin, with South Shelby carrying a 79% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Shelby enters at 25.3 points per game compared with 22.0 for Wright City. South Shelby also allows 12.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.4 for South Shelby and +4.9 for Wright City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01South Shelby owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wright City has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.