TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Central (Kansas City) | Winnetonka |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 21.9 | 24.3 |
| PA / GAME | 16.6 | 41.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +8.8 | -15.5 |
| SOS | -5.1 | +7.7 |
| POWER | +7.0 | -12.8 |
WINNETONKA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Winnetonka finished the job, as Central (Kansas City) and Winnetonka finished 18-28. MOFO's pick of Central (Kansas City) missed; the model had projected a 34-18 final.
The actual margin was 10 points versus MOFO's 15.3-point projection. That produced a 25.3-point margin error, with score errors of 15.6 for Central (Kansas City) and 9.7 for Winnetonka.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CENTRAL (KANSAS CITY)
MOFO leans toward Central (Kansas City) because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 19.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 15.3-point margin, with Central (Kansas City) carrying a 88% win probability.
Winnetonka actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Central (Kansas City) also allows 24.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.1 for Central (Kansas City) and +7.7 for Winnetonka. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Winnetonka owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Winnetonka has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 19.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.