TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lone Jack with Kingsville | Windsor |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 14.7 | 20.7 |
| PA / GAME | 30.9 | 24.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -19.2 | -5.5 |
| SOS | -1.7 | -5.0 |
| POWER | -19.8 | -7.3 |
WINDSOR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Windsor finished the job, as Lone Jack with Kingsville and Windsor finished 6-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 18-27 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 9.1-point projection. That produced a 20.9-point margin error, with score errors of 12.1 for Lone Jack with Kingsville and 8.8 for Windsor.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WINDSOR
MOFO leans toward Windsor because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.1-point margin, with Windsor carrying a 77% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Windsor enters at 20.7 points per game compared with 14.7 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Windsor also allows 6.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -5.0 for Windsor and -1.7 for Lone Jack with Kingsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Windsor owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Lone Jack with Kingsville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.