TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Salem | Willow Springs |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 22.7 | 23.6 |
| PA / GAME | 29.7 | 30.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.4 | -6.9 |
| SOS | -5.1 | +3.3 |
| POWER | -14.2 | -5.7 |
WILLOW SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Willow Springs finished the job, as Salem and Willow Springs finished 27-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-28 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 2.9-point projection. That produced a 1.9-point margin error, with score errors of 1.9 for Salem and 0.0 for Willow Springs.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLOW SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Willow Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.9-point margin, with Willow Springs carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Willow Springs enters at 23.6 points per game compared with 22.7 for Salem. Salem's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.3 for Willow Springs and -5.1 for Salem. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Willow Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willow Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.