TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Excelsior Springs | William Chrisman |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 18.7 | 23.7 |
| PA / GAME | 34.7 | 27.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -21.0 | -10.6 |
| SOS | +6.3 | -0.4 |
| POWER | -18.8 | -10.7 |
WILLIAM CHRISMAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
William Chrisman finished the job, as Excelsior Springs and William Chrisman finished 12-54. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-30 final.
The actual margin was 42 points versus MOFO's 6.9-point projection. That produced a 35.1-point margin error, with score errors of 10.8 for Excelsior Springs and 24.3 for William Chrisman.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WILLIAM CHRISMAN
MOFO leans toward William Chrisman because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 8.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.9-point margin, with William Chrisman carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: William Chrisman enters at 23.7 points per game compared with 18.7 for Excelsior Springs. William Chrisman also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.4 for William Chrisman and +6.3 for Excelsior Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01William Chrisman owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Excelsior Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 8.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.