TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Orrick | Wellington-Napoleon |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 25.6 | 35.6 |
| PA / GAME | 31.1 | 34.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -8.9 | +5.1 |
| SOS | +0.8 | +5.1 |
| POWER | -8.6 | +6.9 |
WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Wellington-Napoleon finished the job, as Orrick and Wellington-Napoleon finished 22-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-35 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 7.3-point projection. That produced a 28.7-point margin error, with score errors of 6.0 for Orrick and 22.7 for Wellington-Napoleon.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WELLINGTON-NAPOLEON
MOFO leans toward Wellington-Napoleon because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.3-point margin, with Wellington-Napoleon carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Wellington-Napoleon enters at 35.6 points per game compared with 25.6 for Orrick. Orrick's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.1 for Wellington-Napoleon and +0.8 for Orrick. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Wellington-Napoleon owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Wellington-Napoleon has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.