TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carthage | Webb City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| PA / GAME | 20.4 | 17.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.5 | +20.3 |
| SOS | -2.4 | -8.0 |
| POWER | +21.7 | +17.5 |
CARTHAGE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Carthage finished the job, as Carthage and Webb City finished 36-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-27 final.
The actual margin was 22 points versus MOFO's 0.6-point projection. That produced a 21.4-point margin error, with score errors of 8.1 for Carthage and 13.3 for Webb City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARTHAGE
MOFO leans toward Carthage because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.6-point margin, with Carthage carrying a 52% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carthage enters at 37.0 points per game compared with 36.0 for Webb City. Webb City's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.4 for Carthage and -8.0 for Webb City. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Carthage owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Carthage has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.