TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Timberland | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 38.1 | 26.6 |
| PA / GAME | 26.3 | 26.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +11.5 | +0.8 |
| SOS | -8.7 | +0.2 |
| POWER | +8.4 | +0.9 |
TIMBERLAND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Timberland finished the job, as Timberland and Washington finished 35-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-26 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 7.1-point projection. That produced a 0.9-point margin error, with score errors of 2.1 for Timberland and 1.2 for Washington.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIMBERLAND
MOFO leans toward Timberland because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.1-point margin, with Timberland carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Timberland enters at 38.1 points per game compared with 26.6 for Washington. Timberland also allows 0.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.7 for Timberland and +0.2 for Washington. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Timberland owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Washington has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.