TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | El Dorado Springs | Warsaw |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 23.3 | 28.7 |
| PA / GAME | 27.9 | 24.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.2 | +7.5 |
| SOS | -6.7 | -6.7 |
| POWER | -8.5 | +5.2 |
WARSAW WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Warsaw finished the job, as El Dorado Springs and Warsaw finished 14-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 22-30 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 5.5-point margin error, with score errors of 8.3 for El Dorado Springs and 2.8 for Warsaw.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WARSAW
MOFO leans toward Warsaw because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 13.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Warsaw carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Warsaw enters at 28.7 points per game compared with 23.3 for El Dorado Springs. Warsaw also allows 3.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.7 for Warsaw and -6.7 for El Dorado Springs. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Warsaw owns the stronger scoring profile.
02El Dorado Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 13.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.