TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Bowling Green | Van-Far |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 39.7 | 21.3 |
| PA / GAME | 32.0 | 39.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.9 | -22.8 |
| SOS | +2.0 | +2.9 |
| POWER | +11.6 | -21.7 |
BOWLING GREEN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Bowling Green finished the job, as Bowling Green and Van-Far finished 65-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-23 final.
The actual margin was 59 points versus MOFO's 20.2-point projection. That produced a 38.8-point margin error, with score errors of 21.9 for Bowling Green and 16.9 for Van-Far.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BOWLING GREEN
MOFO leans toward Bowling Green because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 33.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.2-point margin, with Bowling Green carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Bowling Green enters at 39.7 points per game compared with 21.3 for Van-Far. Bowling Green also allows 7.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.0 for Bowling Green and +2.9 for Van-Far. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Bowling Green owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Van-Far has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 33.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.