TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Francis Borgia | Union |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 30.6 | 36.0 |
| PA / GAME | 23.6 | 18.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.8 | +23.8 |
| SOS | -7.3 | -17.3 |
| POWER | +1.2 | +17.7 |
UNION WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Union finished the job, as St. Francis Borgia and Union finished 26-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 23-32 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 9.3-point projection. That produced a 1.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.4 for St. Francis Borgia and 2.1 for Union.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD UNION
MOFO leans toward Union because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.3-point margin, with Union carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Union enters at 36.0 points per game compared with 30.6 for St. Francis Borgia. Union also allows 4.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -17.3 for Union and -7.3 for St. Francis Borgia. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Union owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Francis Borgia has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.