TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Francis Howell North | Troy Buchanan |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 9.6 | 35.6 |
| PA / GAME | 41.4 | 19.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -31.6 | +22.7 |
| SOS | +5.5 | +1.9 |
| POWER | -29.7 | +23.3 |
TROY BUCHANAN WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Troy Buchanan finished the job, as Francis Howell North and Troy Buchanan finished 0-80. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 9-44 final.
The actual margin was 80 points versus MOFO's 35.8-point projection. That produced a 44.2-point margin error, with score errors of 8.7 for Francis Howell North and 35.5 for Troy Buchanan.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TROY BUCHANAN
MOFO leans toward Troy Buchanan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 53.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 35.8-point margin, with Troy Buchanan carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Troy Buchanan enters at 35.6 points per game compared with 9.6 for Francis Howell North. Troy Buchanan also allows 21.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.9 for Troy Buchanan and +5.5 for Francis Howell North. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Troy Buchanan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Francis Howell North has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 53.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.