TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Harrisburg | Tipton with Bunceton |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 12.4 | 42.7 |
| PA / GAME | 33.6 | 14.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -19.7 | +31.6 |
| SOS | -0.8 | -4.1 |
| POWER | -20.0 | +30.2 |
TIPTON WITH BUNCETON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Tipton with Bunceton finished the job, as Harrisburg and Tipton with Bunceton finished 6-72. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 8-44 final.
The actual margin was 66 points versus MOFO's 35.7-point projection. That produced a 30.3-point margin error, with score errors of 1.9 for Harrisburg and 28.4 for Tipton with Bunceton.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD TIPTON WITH BUNCETON
MOFO leans toward Tipton with Bunceton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 50.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 35.7-point margin, with Tipton with Bunceton carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Tipton with Bunceton enters at 42.7 points per game compared with 12.4 for Harrisburg. Tipton with Bunceton also allows 19.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.1 for Tipton with Bunceton and -0.8 for Harrisburg. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Tipton with Bunceton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Harrisburg has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 50.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.