TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Cabool | Thayer |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 13.4 | 34.0 |
| PA / GAME | 44.0 | 26.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.6 | +12.7 |
| SOS | +2.1 | +4.0 |
| POWER | -27.9 | +14.1 |
THAYER WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Thayer finished the job, as Cabool and Thayer finished 0-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 15-44 final.
The actual margin was 58 points versus MOFO's 29.0-point projection. That produced a 29.0-point margin error, with score errors of 15.0 for Cabool and 14.0 for Thayer.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD THAYER
MOFO leans toward Thayer because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 42.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 29.0-point margin, with Thayer carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Thayer enters at 34.0 points per game compared with 13.4 for Cabool. Thayer also allows 17.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +4.0 for Thayer and +2.1 for Cabool. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Thayer owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Thayer has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 42.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.