TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Holt | Stewartsville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 36.7 | 36.1 |
| PA / GAME | 43.9 | 47.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.9 | -15.1 |
| SOS | +0.2 | +12.5 |
| POWER | -6.8 | -10.7 |
STEWARTSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Stewartsville finished the job, as South Holt and Stewartsville finished 6-50. MOFO's pick of South Holt missed; the model had projected a 42-40 final.
The actual margin was 44 points versus MOFO's 3.0-point projection. That produced a 47.0-point margin error, with score errors of 36.5 for South Holt and 10.5 for Stewartsville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTH HOLT
MOFO leans toward South Holt because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.0-point margin, with South Holt carrying a 60% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: South Holt enters at 36.7 points per game compared with 36.1 for Stewartsville. South Holt also allows 3.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +0.2 for South Holt and +12.5 for Stewartsville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01South Holt owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Stewartsville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.