TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Princeton | Stanberry |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 35.7 | 53.9 |
| PA / GAME | 21.3 | 31.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +15.7 | +24.3 |
| SOS | +4.6 | -11.7 |
| POWER | +17.3 | +20.3 |
PRINCETON WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Princeton finished the job, as Princeton and Stanberry finished 20-0. MOFO's pick of Stanberry missed; the model had projected a 34-38 final.
The actual margin was 20 points versus MOFO's 3.8-point projection. That produced a 23.8-point margin error, with score errors of 13.7 for Princeton and 37.5 for Stanberry.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD STANBERRY
MOFO leans toward Stanberry because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.8-point margin, with Stanberry carrying a 62% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Stanberry enters at 53.9 points per game compared with 35.7 for Princeton. Princeton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.7 for Stanberry and +4.6 for Princeton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Stanberry owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Princeton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.