TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Blue Springs | Staley |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.1 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 22.3 | 25.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +12.5 | -8.2 |
| SOS | +8.9 | +1.7 |
| POWER | +15.6 | -7.6 |
BLUE SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Blue Springs finished the job, as Blue Springs and Staley finished 49-16. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 31-19 final.
The actual margin was 33 points versus MOFO's 12.3-point projection. That produced a 20.7-point margin error, with score errors of 17.9 for Blue Springs and 2.8 for Staley.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD BLUE SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Blue Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.3-point margin, with Blue Springs carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Blue Springs enters at 31.1 points per game compared with 21.0 for Staley. Blue Springs also allows 3.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.9 for Blue Springs and +1.7 for Staley. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Blue Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Blue Springs has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.