TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kearney | St. Pius X (Kansas City) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 41.3 | 37.0 |
| PA / GAME | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +29.1 | +27.6 |
| SOS | -0.2 | -4.5 |
| POWER | +29.1 | +26.1 |
KEARNEY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Kearney finished the job, as Kearney and St. Pius X (Kansas City) finished 31-6. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-24 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 3.7-point projection. That produced a 21.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.1 for Kearney and 18.2 for St. Pius X (Kansas City).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KEARNEY
MOFO leans toward Kearney because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.7-point margin, with Kearney carrying a 62% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Kearney enters at 41.3 points per game compared with 37.0 for St. Pius X (Kansas City). Kearney also allows 2.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.2 for Kearney and -4.5 for St. Pius X (Kansas City). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Kearney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Kearney has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.