TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sweet Springs | St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 39.6 | 24.1 |
| PA / GAME | 41.6 | 45.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | -4.0 | -18.4 |
| SOS | +3.5 | +7.8 |
| POWER | -2.8 | -15.6 |
SWEET SPRINGS WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Sweet Springs finished the job, as Sweet Springs and St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) finished 28-20. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 44-32 final.
The actual margin was 8 points versus MOFO's 12.2-point projection. That produced a 4.2-point margin error, with score errors of 15.9 for Sweet Springs and 11.7 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia).
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SWEET SPRINGS
MOFO leans toward Sweet Springs because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 12.2-point margin, with Sweet Springs carrying a 84% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sweet Springs enters at 39.6 points per game compared with 24.1 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Sweet Springs also allows 4.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +3.5 for Sweet Springs and +7.8 for St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Sweet Springs owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Paul Lutheran (Concordia) has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.