TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Van Horn | St. Michael the Archangel |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 25.9 | 21.3 |
| PA / GAME | 24.3 | 28.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +3.1 | -8.9 |
| SOS | -10.3 | +13.1 |
| POWER | -0.6 | -4.3 |
ST. MICHAEL THE ARCHANGEL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Michael the Archangel finished the job, as Van Horn and St. Michael the Archangel finished 21-28. MOFO's pick of Van Horn missed; the model had projected a 27-23 final.
The actual margin was 7 points versus MOFO's 4.3-point projection. That produced a 11.3-point margin error, with score errors of 6.1 for Van Horn and 5.2 for St. Michael the Archangel.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD VAN HORN
MOFO leans toward Van Horn because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.3-point margin, with Van Horn carrying a 64% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Van Horn enters at 25.9 points per game compared with 21.3 for St. Michael the Archangel. Van Horn also allows 4.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.3 for Van Horn and +13.1 for St. Michael the Archangel. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Van Horn owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Michael the Archangel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.