TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Worth County | St. Joseph Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 40.7 | 32.7 |
| PA / GAME | 18.4 | 37.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +23.1 | -6.8 |
| SOS | +7.2 | +5.3 |
| POWER | +25.6 | -4.9 |
WORTH COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Worth County finished the job, as Worth County and St. Joseph Christian finished 68-18. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 43-22 final.
The actual margin was 50 points versus MOFO's 20.6-point projection. That produced a 29.4-point margin error, with score errors of 25.3 for Worth County and 4.0 for St. Joseph Christian.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD WORTH COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Worth County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 30.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 20.6-point margin, with Worth County carrying a 94% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Worth County enters at 40.7 points per game compared with 32.7 for St. Joseph Christian. Worth County also allows 19.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.2 for Worth County and +5.3 for St. Joseph Christian. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Worth County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Worth County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 30.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.