TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hannibal | St. Dominic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 27.3 | 19.1 |
| PA / GAME | 23.3 | 25.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.9 | -8.8 |
| SOS | +10.6 | +2.3 |
| POWER | +8.6 | -8.0 |
ST. DOMINIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Dominic finished the job, as Hannibal and St. Dominic finished 26-29. MOFO's pick of Hannibal missed; the model had projected a 28-19 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 9.3-point projection. That produced a 12.3-point margin error, with score errors of 2.4 for Hannibal and 9.9 for St. Dominic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HANNIBAL
MOFO leans toward Hannibal because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 16.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 9.3-point margin, with Hannibal carrying a 78% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hannibal enters at 27.3 points per game compared with 19.1 for St. Dominic. Hannibal also allows 2.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +10.6 for Hannibal and +2.3 for St. Dominic. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Hannibal owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hannibal has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 16.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.