TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Sullivan | St. Clair |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 34.4 | 30.4 |
| PA / GAME | 20.9 | 18.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +20.7 | +17.5 |
| SOS | -7.0 | -10.7 |
| POWER | +18.3 | +13.8 |
ST. CLAIR WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Clair finished the job, as Sullivan and St. Clair finished 21-35. MOFO's pick of Sullivan missed; the model had projected a 27-25 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 2.0-point projection. That produced a 16.0-point margin error, with score errors of 6.1 for Sullivan and 10.0 for St. Clair.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SULLIVAN
MOFO leans toward Sullivan because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 2.0-point margin, with Sullivan carrying a 57% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Sullivan enters at 34.4 points per game compared with 30.4 for St. Clair. St. Clair's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.0 for Sullivan and -10.7 for St. Clair. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Sullivan owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Sullivan has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.