TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | St. Charles West | St. Charles |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 33.0 | 17.8 |
| PA / GAME | 14.9 | 30.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +22.6 | -14.5 |
| SOS | -10.7 | -5.6 |
| POWER | +18.9 | -16.4 |
ST. CHARLES WEST WRITES THE FINAL WORD
St. Charles West finished the job, as St. Charles West and St. Charles finished 38-0. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 35-13 final.
The actual margin was 38 points versus MOFO's 22.6-point projection. That produced a 15.4-point margin error, with score errors of 2.8 for St. Charles West and 12.6 for St. Charles.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ST. CHARLES WEST
MOFO leans toward St. Charles West because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 35.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 22.6-point margin, with St. Charles West carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: St. Charles West enters at 33.0 points per game compared with 17.8 for St. Charles. St. Charles West also allows 15.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.7 for St. Charles West and -5.6 for St. Charles. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01St. Charles West owns the stronger scoring profile.
02St. Charles has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 35.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.