TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Buffalo | Springfield Catholic |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 38.6 | 35.7 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 22.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.5 | +18.1 |
| SOS | -5.0 | -3.0 |
| POWER | +7.8 | +17.0 |
SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Springfield Catholic finished the job, as Buffalo and Springfield Catholic finished 27-39. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-34 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 7.2-point margin error, with score errors of 2.1 for Buffalo and 5.1 for Springfield Catholic.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SPRINGFIELD CATHOLIC
MOFO leans toward Springfield Catholic because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Springfield Catholic carrying a 65% win probability.
Buffalo actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Springfield Catholic also allows 7.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.0 for Springfield Catholic and -5.0 for Buffalo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Buffalo owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Springfield Catholic has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.