TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Fulton | Southern Boone |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.1 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 29.6 | 22.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -12.4 | +10.5 |
| SOS | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| POWER | -12.7 | +10.5 |
SOUTHERN BOONE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Southern Boone finished the job, as Fulton and Southern Boone finished 7-32. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 19-33 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 14.2-point projection. That produced a 10.8-point margin error, with score errors of 11.6 for Fulton and 0.8 for Southern Boone.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SOUTHERN BOONE
MOFO leans toward Southern Boone because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 23.1-point power-rating advantage and projects a 14.2-point margin, with Southern Boone carrying a 87% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Southern Boone enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 19.1 for Fulton. Southern Boone also allows 6.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.1 for Southern Boone and -0.8 for Fulton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Southern Boone owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Southern Boone has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 23.1-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.