TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Raytown South | Smithville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 25.3 | 25.7 |
| PA / GAME | 18.3 | 29.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +9.9 | -5.9 |
| SOS | -7.2 | +12.2 |
| POWER | +7.4 | -1.6 |
SMITHVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Smithville finished the job, as Raytown South and Smithville finished 0-30. MOFO's pick of Raytown South missed; the model had projected a 28-21 final.
The actual margin was 30 points versus MOFO's 6.7-point projection. That produced a 36.7-point margin error, with score errors of 28.0 for Raytown South and 8.7 for Smithville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RAYTOWN SOUTH
MOFO leans toward Raytown South because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 9.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.7-point margin, with Raytown South carrying a 71% win probability.
Smithville actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Raytown South also allows 11.1 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -7.2 for Raytown South and +12.2 for Smithville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Smithville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Smithville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 9.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.