TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | De Smet Jesuit | SLUH |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 41.9 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 28.0 | 13.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | +16.7 | +15.3 |
| SOS | -1.0 | -4.0 |
| POWER | +16.4 | +13.9 |
DE SMET JESUIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
De Smet Jesuit finished the job, as De Smet Jesuit and SLUH finished 49-36. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 28-26 final.
The actual margin was 13 points versus MOFO's 1.9-point projection. That produced a 11.1-point margin error, with score errors of 21.0 for De Smet Jesuit and 9.9 for SLUH.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DE SMET JESUIT
MOFO leans toward De Smet Jesuit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 2.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.9-point margin, with De Smet Jesuit carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: De Smet Jesuit enters at 41.9 points per game compared with 25.0 for SLUH. SLUH's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -1.0 for De Smet Jesuit and -4.0 for SLUH. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01De Smet Jesuit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02De Smet Jesuit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 2.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.