TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Monett | Seneca |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.3 | 29.4 |
| PA / GAME | 27.0 | 19.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +5.9 | +13.6 |
| SOS | -4.7 | +5.5 |
| POWER | +4.3 | +15.5 |
SENECA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Seneca finished the job, as Monett and Seneca finished 38-52. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-29 final.
The actual margin was 14 points versus MOFO's 5.3-point projection. That produced a 8.7-point margin error, with score errors of 13.8 for Monett and 22.5 for Seneca.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD SENECA
MOFO leans toward Seneca because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 5.3-point margin, with Seneca carrying a 67% win probability.
Monett actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. Seneca also allows 7.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +5.5 for Seneca and -4.7 for Monett. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Monett owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Seneca has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.