TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | South Callaway | Russellville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 24.7 | 40.0 |
| PA / GAME | 24.6 | 14.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | +1.0 | +30.9 |
| SOS | +3.2 | -19.6 |
| POWER | +2.1 | +24.0 |
RUSSELLVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Russellville finished the job, as South Callaway and Russellville finished 26-27. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 17-34 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 16.9-point projection. That produced a 15.9-point margin error, with score errors of 8.6 for South Callaway and 7.3 for Russellville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD RUSSELLVILLE
MOFO leans toward Russellville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 21.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.9-point margin, with Russellville carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Russellville enters at 40.0 points per game compared with 24.7 for South Callaway. Russellville also allows 10.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -19.6 for Russellville and +3.2 for South Callaway. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Russellville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02South Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 21.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.