TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Grandview | Ruskin |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 27.7 | 24.3 |
| PA / GAME | 29.7 | 32.0 |
| AVG MARGIN | -6.1 | -6.8 |
| SOS | -13.1 | -5.8 |
| POWER | -10.7 | -8.8 |
GRANDVIEW WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Grandview finished the job, as Grandview and Ruskin finished 32-14. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 29-28 final.
The actual margin was 18 points versus MOFO's 1.7-point projection. That produced a 16.3-point margin error, with score errors of 2.7 for Grandview and 13.6 for Ruskin.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD GRANDVIEW
MOFO leans toward Grandview because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 1.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.7-point margin, with Grandview carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Grandview enters at 27.7 points per game compared with 24.3 for Ruskin. Grandview also allows 2.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -13.1 for Grandview and -5.8 for Ruskin. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Grandview owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Ruskin has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 1.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.