TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Aurora | Rolla |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 12.6 | 28.3 |
| PA / GAME | 31.6 | 33.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | -23.2 | -4.0 |
| SOS | +11.2 | +14.8 |
| POWER | -19.3 | +1.2 |
ROLLA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rolla finished the job, as Aurora and Rolla finished 12-48. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-32 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 11.9-point projection. That produced a 24.1-point margin error, with score errors of 8.5 for Aurora and 15.6 for Rolla.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROLLA
MOFO leans toward Rolla because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 20.5-point power-rating advantage and projects a 11.9-point margin, with Rolla carrying a 83% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rolla enters at 28.3 points per game compared with 12.6 for Aurora. Aurora's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +14.8 for Rolla and +11.2 for Aurora. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Rolla owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rolla has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 20.5-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.