TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Lafayette (Wildwood) | Rockwood Summit |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 25.6 | 26.3 |
| PA / GAME | 25.3 | 24.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -0.5 | -0.9 |
| SOS | +5.7 | +9.5 |
| POWER | +1.5 | +2.4 |
ROCKWOOD SUMMIT WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Rockwood Summit finished the job, as Lafayette (Wildwood) and Rockwood Summit finished 14-33. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-26 final.
The actual margin was 19 points versus MOFO's 1.7-point projection. That produced a 17.3-point margin error, with score errors of 10.5 for Lafayette (Wildwood) and 6.8 for Rockwood Summit.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ROCKWOOD SUMMIT
MOFO leans toward Rockwood Summit because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.9-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.7-point margin, with Rockwood Summit carrying a 56% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Rockwood Summit enters at 26.3 points per game compared with 25.6 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Rockwood Summit also allows 1.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.5 for Rockwood Summit and +5.7 for Lafayette (Wildwood). Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Rockwood Summit owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Rockwood Summit has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.9-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.