TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Carrollton | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 38.1 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 9.9 | 28.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +34.3 | +6.2 |
| SOS | -15.7 | +2.0 |
| POWER | +28.8 | +6.9 |
RICHMOND WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Richmond finished the job, as Carrollton and Richmond finished 16-52. MOFO's pick of Carrollton missed; the model had projected a 35-19 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 16.8-point projection. That produced a 52.8-point margin error, with score errors of 19.4 for Carrollton and 33.4 for Richmond.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CARROLLTON
MOFO leans toward Carrollton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 22.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 16.8-point margin, with Carrollton carrying a 90% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Carrollton enters at 38.1 points per game compared with 31.3 for Richmond. Carrollton also allows 18.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -15.7 for Carrollton and +2.0 for Richmond. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Carrollton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Richmond has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 22.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.