TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hayti | Principia |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| PF / GAME | 37.0 | 35.5 |
| PA / GAME | 22.6 | 44.3 |
| AVG MARGIN | +13.8 | -16.3 |
| SOS | -2.7 | +2.3 |
| POWER | +12.9 | -15.5 |
HAYTI WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Hayti finished the job, as Hayti and Principia finished 54-42. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 44-26 final.
The actual margin was 12 points versus MOFO's 17.8-point projection. That produced a 5.8-point margin error, with score errors of 10.3 for Hayti and 16.0 for Principia.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD HAYTI
MOFO leans toward Hayti because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 28.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.8-point margin, with Hayti carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Hayti enters at 37.0 points per game compared with 35.5 for Principia. Hayti also allows 21.7 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -2.7 for Hayti and +2.3 for Principia. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Hayti owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Principia has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 28.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.