TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Caruthersville | Portageville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 33.0 | 43.9 |
| PA / GAME | 28.3 | 23.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.2 | +23.3 |
| SOS | +0.1 | -9.2 |
| POWER | +4.3 | +20.0 |
CARUTHERSVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Caruthersville finished the job, as Caruthersville and Portageville finished 44-8. MOFO's pick of Portageville missed; the model had projected a 27-38 final.
The actual margin was 36 points versus MOFO's 10.7-point projection. That produced a 46.7-point margin error, with score errors of 17.1 for Caruthersville and 29.6 for Portageville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PORTAGEVILLE
MOFO leans toward Portageville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 15.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 10.7-point margin, with Portageville carrying a 81% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Portageville enters at 43.9 points per game compared with 33.0 for Caruthersville. Portageville also allows 4.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -9.2 for Portageville and +0.1 for Caruthersville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Portageville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Caruthersville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 15.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.