TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Hogan Prep Academy Charter | Pembroke Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 22.0 | 40.9 |
| PA / GAME | 17.2 | 11.9 |
| AVG MARGIN | +6.3 | +33.4 |
| SOS | -3.8 | -11.7 |
| POWER | +5.0 | +29.3 |
PEMBROKE HILL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pembroke Hill finished the job, as Hogan Prep Academy Charter and Pembroke Hill finished 0-49. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 14-32 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 17.1-point projection. That produced a 31.9-point margin error, with score errors of 14.4 for Hogan Prep Academy Charter and 17.5 for Pembroke Hill.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PEMBROKE HILL
MOFO leans toward Pembroke Hill because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 17.1-point margin, with Pembroke Hill carrying a 91% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pembroke Hill enters at 40.9 points per game compared with 22.0 for Hogan Prep Academy Charter. Pembroke Hill also allows 5.3 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -11.7 for Pembroke Hill and -3.8 for Hogan Prep Academy Charter. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Pembroke Hill owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Hogan Prep Academy Charter has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.