TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Oak Park | Park Hill South |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 26.0 | 25.0 |
| PA / GAME | 28.6 | 30.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | -3.1 | -9.8 |
| SOS | +8.6 | -4.3 |
| POWER | -0.1 | -11.4 |
OAK PARK WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oak Park finished the job, as Oak Park and Park Hill South finished 35-3. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 30-25 final.
The actual margin was 32 points versus MOFO's 4.8-point projection. That produced a 27.2-point margin error, with score errors of 5.1 for Oak Park and 22.1 for Park Hill South.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OAK PARK
MOFO leans toward Oak Park because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 11.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.8-point margin, with Oak Park carrying a 65% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Oak Park enters at 26.0 points per game compared with 25.0 for Park Hill South. Oak Park also allows 2.0 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.6 for Oak Park and -4.3 for Park Hill South. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Oak Park owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oak Park has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 11.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.