TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Knox County | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| PF / GAME | 52.1 | 35.4 |
| PA / GAME | 34.4 | 32.2 |
| AVG MARGIN | +18.7 | +7.3 |
| SOS | -10.9 | +8.0 |
| POWER | +14.9 | +10.1 |
KNOX COUNTY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Knox County finished the job, as Knox County and Paris finished 30-28. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 42-35 final.
The actual margin was 2 points versus MOFO's 7.5-point projection. That produced a 5.5-point margin error, with score errors of 12.3 for Knox County and 6.8 for Paris.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD KNOX COUNTY
MOFO leans toward Knox County because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.5-point margin, with Knox County carrying a 73% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Knox County enters at 52.1 points per game compared with 35.4 for Paris. Paris's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -10.9 for Knox County and +8.0 for Paris. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Knox County owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Paris has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.