TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Owensville | Pacific |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| PF / GAME | 13.7 | 21.0 |
| PA / GAME | 39.3 | 37.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -28.9 | -23.0 |
| SOS | +6.3 | +11.2 |
| POWER | -26.7 | -19.1 |
PACIFIC WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Pacific finished the job, as Owensville and Pacific finished 22-61. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 25-31 final.
The actual margin was 39 points versus MOFO's 6.5-point projection. That produced a 32.5-point margin error, with score errors of 2.7 for Owensville and 29.8 for Pacific.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD PACIFIC
MOFO leans toward Pacific because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 6.5-point margin, with Pacific carrying a 70% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Pacific enters at 21.0 points per game compared with 13.7 for Owensville. Pacific also allows 1.6 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +11.2 for Pacific and +6.3 for Owensville. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Pacific owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Pacific has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.