TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Drexel | Osceola |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 22.7 | 20.9 |
| PA / GAME | 37.9 | 39.4 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.2 | -16.9 |
| SOS | +9.4 | -4.7 |
| POWER | -10.9 | -18.6 |
DREXEL WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Drexel finished the job, as Drexel and Osceola finished 78-22. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 32-28 final.
The actual margin was 56 points versus MOFO's 4.1-point projection. That produced a 51.9-point margin error, with score errors of 45.7 for Drexel and 6.2 for Osceola.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD DREXEL
MOFO leans toward Drexel because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.7-point power-rating advantage and projects a 4.1-point margin, with Drexel carrying a 63% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Drexel enters at 22.7 points per game compared with 20.9 for Osceola. Drexel also allows 1.5 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +9.4 for Drexel and -4.7 for Osceola. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Drexel owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Drexel has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.7-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.