TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Warrenton | Orchard Farm |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 24.0 | 29.9 |
| PA / GAME | 19.7 | 24.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +4.9 | +6.4 |
| SOS | -0.4 | -4.8 |
| POWER | +4.7 | +4.7 |
ORCHARD FARM WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Orchard Farm finished the job, as Warrenton and Orchard Farm finished 40-41. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 24-25 final.
The actual margin was 1 points versus MOFO's 0.4-point projection. That produced a 0.6-point margin error, with score errors of 15.6 for Warrenton and 16.3 for Orchard Farm.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD ORCHARD FARM
MOFO leans toward Orchard Farm because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 0.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 0.4-point margin, with Orchard Farm carrying a 51% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Orchard Farm enters at 29.9 points per game compared with 24.0 for Warrenton. Warrenton's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -4.8 for Orchard Farm and -0.4 for Warrenton. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Orchard Farm owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Warrenton has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 0.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.