TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Webster Groves | Oakville |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 24.2 | 31.3 |
| PA / GAME | 18.3 | 19.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.0 | +17.1 |
| SOS | -14.6 | +1.1 |
| POWER | +4.9 | +17.5 |
OAKVILLE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oakville finished the job, as Webster Groves and Oakville finished 0-51. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 20-27 final.
The actual margin was 51 points versus MOFO's 7.0-point projection. That produced a 44.0-point margin error, with score errors of 19.7 for Webster Groves and 24.3 for Oakville.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD OAKVILLE
MOFO leans toward Oakville because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 12.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 7.0-point margin, with Oakville carrying a 72% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Oakville enters at 31.3 points per game compared with 24.2 for Webster Groves. Webster Groves's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +1.1 for Oakville and -14.6 for Webster Groves. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Oakville owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oakville has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 12.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.