TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Clinton | Oak Grove |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| PF / GAME | 27.0 | 21.4 |
| PA / GAME | 26.6 | 21.6 |
| AVG MARGIN | +0.2 | -4.9 |
| SOS | -0.7 | +1.7 |
| POWER | -0.0 | -4.2 |
OAK GROVE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Oak Grove finished the job, as Clinton and Oak Grove finished 21-24. MOFO's pick of Clinton missed; the model had projected a 25-23 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 1.4-point projection. That produced a 4.4-point margin error, with score errors of 3.8 for Clinton and 0.5 for Oak Grove.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD CLINTON
MOFO leans toward Clinton because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 4.2-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.4-point margin, with Clinton carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Clinton enters at 27.0 points per game compared with 21.4 for Oak Grove. Oak Grove's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at -0.7 for Clinton and +1.7 for Oak Grove. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01Clinton owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Oak Grove has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 4.2-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.