TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Schuyler County | North Shelby |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| PF / GAME | 29.5 | 51.6 |
| PA / GAME | 42.5 | 12.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -10.1 | +35.0 |
| SOS | -1.2 | -3.5 |
| POWER | -10.6 | +33.8 |
NORTH SHELBY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Shelby finished the job, as Schuyler County and North Shelby finished 0-97. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-52 final.
The actual margin was 97 points versus MOFO's 36.1-point projection. That produced a 60.9-point margin error, with score errors of 15.9 for Schuyler County and 45.0 for North Shelby.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH SHELBY
MOFO leans toward North Shelby because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 44.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 36.1-point margin, with North Shelby carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Shelby enters at 51.6 points per game compared with 29.5 for Schuyler County. North Shelby also allows 30.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -3.5 for North Shelby and -1.2 for Schuyler County. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01North Shelby owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Schuyler County has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 44.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.