TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Penney | North Platte |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| PF / GAME | 28.6 | 28.4 |
| PA / GAME | 29.0 | 25.1 |
| AVG MARGIN | -1.6 | +4.3 |
| SOS | -1.5 | +2.2 |
| POWER | -2.1 | +5.1 |
NORTH PLATTE WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Platte finished the job, as Penney and North Platte finished 31-34. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-30 final.
The actual margin was 3 points versus MOFO's 3.7-point projection. That produced a 0.7-point margin error, with score errors of 5.1 for Penney and 4.4 for North Platte.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH PLATTE
MOFO leans toward North Platte because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 7.3-point power-rating advantage and projects a 3.7-point margin, with North Platte carrying a 62% win probability.
Penney actually owns the stronger raw scoring average, so this pick is driven more by opponent adjustment and the complete power profile than offense alone. North Platte also allows 3.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +2.2 for North Platte and -1.5 for Penney. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains medium.
01Penney owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Platte has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 7.3-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.