TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Louisiana | North Callaway |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 31.6 | 43.6 |
| PA / GAME | 23.4 | 35.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | +10.5 | +8.3 |
| SOS | -9.8 | +7.5 |
| POWER | +7.1 | +10.9 |
NORTH CALLAWAY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
North Callaway finished the job, as Louisiana and North Callaway finished 15-58. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 33-34 final.
The actual margin was 43 points versus MOFO's 1.5-point projection. That produced a 41.5-point margin error, with score errors of 17.8 for Louisiana and 23.7 for North Callaway.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NORTH CALLAWAY
MOFO leans toward North Callaway because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 3.8-point power-rating advantage and projects a 1.5-point margin, with North Callaway carrying a 55% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: North Callaway enters at 43.6 points per game compared with 31.6 for Louisiana. Louisiana's defensive numbers are competitive, which is the best statistical path to keeping the game tighter than projected.
Strength of schedule checks in at +7.5 for North Callaway and -9.8 for Louisiana. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains low.
01North Callaway owns the stronger scoring profile.
02North Callaway has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 3.8-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.