TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Kickapoo | Nixa |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 19.0 | 34.6 |
| PA / GAME | 33.1 | 21.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -14.9 | +16.5 |
| SOS | -0.9 | +8.5 |
| POWER | -15.2 | +19.4 |
NIXA WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Nixa finished the job, as Kickapoo and Nixa finished 6-55. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-38 final.
The actual margin was 49 points versus MOFO's 21.4-point projection. That produced a 27.6-point margin error, with score errors of 10.4 for Kickapoo and 17.2 for Nixa.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NIXA
MOFO leans toward Nixa because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 34.6-point power-rating advantage and projects a 21.4-point margin, with Nixa carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Nixa enters at 34.6 points per game compared with 19.0 for Kickapoo. Nixa also allows 11.4 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at +8.5 for Nixa and -0.9 for Kickapoo. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Nixa owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Nixa has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 34.6-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.