TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Willard | Neosho |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| PF / GAME | 17.4 | 39.0 |
| PA / GAME | 37.6 | 23.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -22.6 | +19.5 |
| SOS | -6.5 | -6.6 |
| POWER | -24.8 | +17.2 |
NEOSHO WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Neosho finished the job, as Willard and Neosho finished 21-46. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 16-43 final.
The actual margin was 25 points versus MOFO's 27.1-point projection. That produced a 2.1-point margin error, with score errors of 5.1 for Willard and 3.0 for Neosho.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD NEOSHO
MOFO leans toward Neosho because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 42.0-point power-rating advantage and projects a 27.1-point margin, with Neosho carrying a 95% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Neosho enters at 39.0 points per game compared with 17.4 for Willard. Neosho also allows 13.9 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -6.6 for Neosho and -6.5 for Willard. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Neosho owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Willard has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 42.0-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.