TALE OF THE TAPE
| METRIC | Tarkio | Mound City |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| PF / GAME | 19.3 | 45.9 |
| PA / GAME | 39.9 | 36.7 |
| AVG MARGIN | -20.3 | +10.3 |
| SOS | +10.0 | -8.0 |
| POWER | -16.8 | +7.5 |
MOUND CITY WRITES THE FINAL WORD
Mound City finished the job, as Tarkio and Mound City finished 22-56. MOFO got the winner right; the model had projected a 26-45 final.
The actual margin was 34 points versus MOFO's 19.7-point projection. That produced a 14.3-point margin error, with score errors of 3.6 for Tarkio and 10.7 for Mound City.
THE NUMBERS POINT TOWARD MOUND CITY
MOFO leans toward Mound City because the overall profile points in that direction. The model sees a 24.4-point power-rating advantage and projects a 19.7-point margin, with Mound City carrying a 93% win probability.
The clearest separator is scoring: Mound City enters at 45.9 points per game compared with 19.3 for Tarkio. Mound City also allows 3.2 fewer points per game, giving MOFO an edge on both sides of the ball.
Strength of schedule checks in at -8.0 for Mound City and +10.0 for Tarkio. Venue order is unverified, so no home-field advantage was applied. Because this read uses current-season results, the confidence remains high.
01Mound City owns the stronger scoring profile.
02Tarkio has faced the tougher schedule.
03A 24.4-point power-rating gap and no home-field adjustment because venue order is unverified shape the final call.